Mike Davis says:

For most of us, this is the eternal struggle trying to define a reversal or correction. You get some help with the rule of alternation as quite often, if 2 is simple, 4 is complex or visa versa. At least that is what a lot of the wave people think.

The Measured moves happen a lot but as you point out, differ in outcomes. The only thing that might help you realize what is happening in the first wave down is the count and pattern of the previous move up.

With the waves, there is always an alternate count lurking around. I try not to get too stuck on the wave counts and hope that the win/loss percentage helps pick it up.